Wheat and Rice production

 The wheat market has posted the top gains on trepidation that a need to conserve supplies for national needs will limit exports in several key producing countries, Ukraine and Russia in particular.We've seen increasing talk that in the aftermath of this coronavirus many nations may start to replicate supplies of agricultural commodities and then fuel a food scare very similar to what has been seen at the 2007-2008 period when food riots occurred in a number of countries.Recall that wheat and rice are the two primary eaten foods but the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service newest Grain: World Markets and Trade book prices have rallied for both even though global supplies are at record levels and the share of stocks into ingestion is historically large.Major producers such as China, the European Union, India, Russia, and the United States have produced at levels which are more than sufficient to meet increasing global demand.Additionally, wheat harvests in important producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are just a couple of months away.Wheat ending stocks are also estimated at a record 292.8 million with China holding about half of global stocks.As for rice, while production levels are down year-over-year at 496 million metric tons, a bumper 2019/20 global rice harvest is still anticipated and even with lesser manufacturing, entire provides are upwards from the previous year due to record carryin stocks with 2019/20 stocks in a record 181.6 million metric tons.The attached graphic shows the world wheat and rice stocks-to-use ratios with and without China and while world wheat less China wheat stocks-to-use ratio is the tightest since the 2012/13 season, we aren't anywhere near the very low levels for both global wheat and rice which was found from the mid 2000's.

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